Thursday, January 19, 2006

WORLD MARKET NEWS: FOREX-Dollar stalls vs yen after Japan stocks rebound

This kind of news MUST be of my interest, since I am learning the BASICS of FOREIGN EXCHANGE. These will certainly affect not only the STOCKS MARKET but also the CURRENCY MARKET as well, where I am very much inetrested right now. I must be updated in every market news, everyday, if possible,every hour.

Got this from Reuters.

TOKYO, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The dollar shuffled in a tight range against the yen on Thursday as dealers tried to fathom the the effect on currencies from huge swings in the Japanese stock market.

After losing more than 5 percent in the previous two days, the benchmark Nikkei stock average <.N225> was up 2.3 percent by the end of Tokyo trade on Thursday. That helped to ease worries for now that the shock triggered by an investigation into possible irregularities at Internet firm Livedoor could scare away foreign investors from Japanese shares.



The rollercoaster ride in stock prices has done little to bust the dollar/yen out of its recent range, leaving traders scratching their heads as to how the Nikkei's swing would affect the Japanese currency.

"There's a division in the market between whether to sell the yen and buy the dollar on the Nikkei's moves, or sell the dollar and buy the yen," said Kotaro Kunimochi, forex director at Barclays Capital.

While the sharp fall in the Nikkei was intuitively negative for the yen, the impact on currencies was murky, traders said.

Japanese investors who suffered huge losses on stocks could sell the dollar and other high-yielding currencies -- favoured by Japanese individual investors tired of near-zero interest rates at home -- for the yen to offset the losses.

Weakness in the Australian and New Zealand dollars likely reflected some Japanese investors selling high-yield currencies as they and others in the market unwould risky positions, like carry trades, this week on a fall in global stock prices, traders said.

By 0555 GMT, the dollar was fetching 115.25 yen , unchanged from late U.S. levels and off a high of 115.90 yen hit on Wednesday in the aftermath of the plunge in Tokyo stocks.
For the past two weeks, the dollar has been shackled to a roughly 114-116 yen range, and many traders say the currency is unlikely to get out of that rut soon.


The euro eased to $1.2095 , from around $1.2110 in late U.S. trade. But it sat comfortably near the centre of the $1.20-1.22 range it has held for the past two weeks.

The Australian dollar fell 0.6 percent to around 74.70 U.S. cents on Wednesday -- below the psychologically important 75 cents -- and stayed near that level on Thursday.

The New Zealand dollar slipped to 68.30 U.S. cents after skidding 0.8 percent to around 68.55 U.S. cents overnight.

The kiwi ran into selling pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said it had talked with Japanese officials about the potential risks stemming from robust Japanese demand for high-yielding, kiwi-denominated uridashi bonds.

Uridashi bonds are debt issued to offshore investors. Bonds denominated in New Zealand dollars have been a hit among Japanese investors drawn to the advantage that New Zealand rates hold over those in Japan -- 7.25 percent compared with virtually zero.

LOOKING FOR DIRECTION U.S. data released on Wednesday -- rising core consumer prices in December and a solid Beige Book report on business activity -- failed to give clear direction to the market. The dollar has been capped by worries that the Federal Reserve will soon stop tightening policy after having raised interest rates to 4.25 percent, from 1 percent in June 2004. Still, some traders said that investors' appetite for the dollar should remain firm as long as the U.S. currency keeps its rate advantage over other currencies.

"For the yen to rise against the dollar, the market needs a clear reason to ignore the dollar's yield advantage," said Marito Ueda, a director at FX Prime Corp.

"Right now, that does not exist. I think the dollar will start gradually rising."

Data from the U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday showed foreign investors' thirst for U.S. securities remained strong.

Net capital flows into U.S. assets totaled $89.1 billion in November, down from a revised $104.2 billion in October but above economists' expectations for $87.5 billion.

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